CrudeQ
Crude Arb Monitor
Where are the best physical crude arbitrage opportunities right now? Route netbacks, grade differentials, and heatmap profitability — updated weekly.
TOP ROUTE
USGC → EUR
+$2.40/bbl
BRENT–WTI
$4.70
WoW +$6.07
BEST CRACK
$47.55
3-2-1 USGC
ASIA ARB
MARGINAL
+$0.50/bbl
UPDATED
Apr 19 2026
Post-EIA release
LIVE
Top Route
USGC → Europe
+$2.40 / bbl
Best netback — #1 route
Top Grade
WTI Midland
Score 88 / 100
Light sweet — broadest demand
Brent–WTI
$4.70
WoW +$6.07
Below 3M avg — spread recovering
Best Crack
$47.55
WoW +$6.29
3-2-1 USGC — elevated refining margins
Route Scanner
Higher netback = better economics. Above $1.50 = arb open.
Route Netback TableNetback $/bbl — current week
| ROUTE | GRADE | NETBACK $/bbl | WoW Δ | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HoustonRotterdam USGC → Europe | WTI Midland | +2.40/bbl | -0.40 | OPEN |
HoustonSingapore USGC → Asia | WTI Midland | +0.50/bbl | -0.10 | MARGINAL |
NigeriaRotterdam WAF → Europe | Bonny Light | +1.70/bbl | -0.10 | OPEN |
CorpusNingbo Midland → Asia | WTI Midland | +1.20/bbl | +0.20 | OPEN |
BasraLavera Basra → Europe | Basra Heavy | -0.30/bbl | -0.20 | CLOSED |
Sullom VoeYeosu North Sea → Asia | Forties | +0.80/bbl | +0.10 | MARGINAL |
Signal threshold:
OPEN > $1.50
MARGINAL $0.50–1.50
CLOSED < $0.50
loading route chart…
Route HeatmapNetback $/bbl per route — last 5 weeks. Green = open, yellow = marginal, red = closed.
Mar 8
Mar 22
Apr 5
Apr 12
Apr 19
USGC → Europe
+3.8
+5.2
+3.2
+2.8
+2.4
WAF → Europe
+2.4
+3.1
+2.0
+1.8
+1.7
Midland → Asia
+1.5
+2.2
+1.4
+1.0
+1.2
North Sea → Asia
+0.6
+1.0
+0.8
+0.7
+0.8
USGC → Asia
+1.2
+1.8
+0.9
+0.6
+0.5
Basra → Europe
-0.5
+0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
$/bbl scale:
< 0 Closed
0 – 0.5 Borderline
0.5 – 1.5 Marginal
1.5 – 3 Open
> 3 Wide open
Relative Value
Spread analysis and grade differentials vs benchmark crudes.
loading charts…
Crude Screener
API gravity, sulfur content, and opportunity scores by grade.
Grade DatabaseHigher API + lower sulfur = better arb optionality
| GRADE | API° | SULFUR % | DIFF vs BM | BEST REGION | REFINERY TYPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Midland | 40.5° | 0.22% | -0.20/bbl | Europe / Asia | Simple / Complex |
| Bakken | 42° | 0.18% | -1.00/bbl | Europe | Simple / Complex |
| Bonny Light | 35.4° | 0.12% | -1.20/bbl | Europe | Simple / Complex |
| Forties | 38° | 0.35% | -1.80/bbl | Europe / USGC | Simple / Complex |
| Mars | 27.9° | 1.82% | -3.50/bbl | USGC | Complex / Coking |
| Dubai | 31° | 2% | -2.80/bbl | Asia | Complex |
| Urals | 31.5° | 1.5% | -8.50/bbl | Asia / India | Complex |
| WCS | 21° | 3.5% | -12.00/bbl | USGC | Coking |
loading charts…
Refining Economics
Crack spreads by product. Positive = profitable product slate.
3-2-1 Crack
$47.55
/bbl
+6.29 WoW
USGC benchmark
Diesel Crack
$28.50
/bbl
+3.20 WoW
Heating oil vs WTI
Jet Crack
$25.30
/bbl
+2.80 WoW
Jet fuel vs WTI
Fuel Oil Crack
-$10.20
/bbl
-1.10 WoW
HSFO vs Brent
Trade Idea Feed
Apr 19, 2026
LONG1–3 WEEKS
IDEA-01Long Midland → Europe
USGC → Rotterdam+$2.40/bbl
ConvictionHIGH — 82/100
Key Factors
Diesel crack$28.50/bbl
VLCC freight$4.20/t eased
Brent premium$4.70 — recovering
Rationale
Netback down 54% from March peak — still #1 route
European restocking post-run-cut supports refiner bid
VLCC freight eased 8% WoW — window improving
Asia arb near closure — European demand captive
Entry
$92–94 WTI
Target
Netback > $3.00
Stop
Brent–WTI < $3.00
Invalidated if: Spread collapses or VLCC freight spikes above $6/t
LONGPROMPT
IDEA-02Long Mars → USGC Cokers
Mars LOOP → USGC+$3.50 vs sour peers
ConvictionMEDIUM — 58/100
Key Factors
Sour discount−$3.50 vs WTI
Coker margin$18.20/bbl
VGO spread−$1.80 — watch
Rationale
Mars discount at −$3.50 — above 6M avg of −$2.80
USGC coking utilization near 90% — incentivizes sour
Light sweet oversupply risk from domestic production
VGO spread compressing — monitor for reversal
Entry
Mars diff −$3.25/−$3.75
Target
Diff narrows −$2.50
Stop
Diff widens −$4.50
Invalidated if: Light sweet supply disruption raises Midland vs Mars arb
MONITOR2–4 WEEKS
IDEA-03WAF → Europe Arb Watch
Nigeria → Rotterdam+$1.70/bbl
ConvictionLOW — 32/100
Key Factors
Aframax freight$3.80/t stable
WAF supplyLoadings +4% WoW
NWE crack$38.20/bbl
Rationale
Arb open but thin — margin of safety limited
Bonny Light loadings up 4% — ample cargo supply
Competing with US Midland for same European slots
Any Aframax tightening closes window quickly
Entry
Spot cargo basis
Target
Netback > $2.20
Stop
Freight rise or Brent collapse
Invalidated if: Aframax rates exceed $5/t or WAF loadings surge further
AVOIDIMMEDIATE
IDEA-04USGC → Asia — Closing
Houston → Singapore+$0.50/bbl
ConvictionLOW — 15/100
Key Factors
VLCC freight$6.80/t rising
Dubai discount−$2.80 vs Brent
Singapore crack$32.40 — lagging
Rationale
Netback at $0.50 — no execution buffer
VLCC rates up 12% over 4 weeks — eating margin
Singapore margin $15 below USGC — weak Asia demand
ME sour supply competing directly for Asian slots
Entry
Not recommended
Target
Needs $1.50+ netback
Stop
N/A — avoid
Invalidated if: VLCC freight drops below $5/t or Singapore crack recovers to $40+
Insight Feed
Auto-generated market signals based on current data.
Market Signals
Brent premium stretched vs historySPREADBEAR
·$4.70 — below 3M avg of $5.37
·Recovering from negative Apr 5 swing
·Spread compression not yet complete
Diesel cracks favor Atlantic BasinCRACKSBULL
·USGC diesel $28.50 — $4.20 above Singapore
·European diesel arb window wide open
·Distillate flow from USGC favored
Freight rise compressing Asia arbFREIGHTBEAR
·VLCC up 12% over 4 weeks
·USGC→Asia netback at $0.50 — near closure
·Monitor each week for threshold breach
Heavy sour discount wideningGRADESBULL
·Mars diff −$3.50 vs WTI (avg −$2.80)
·USGC coker margin capturing widening
·Light sweet oversupply is primary risk
Singapore margins laggingMARGINSBEAR
·$32.40 vs USGC $47.55 — widest gap 3M
·Asia demand signal structurally weak
·Compresses US light crude bid into Asia
Key Metrics Snapshot
Brent–WTI$4.70/bblBelow 3M avg $5.37
Top Netback+$2.40/bblUSGC → Europe
VLCC Freight$6.80/tTD3C — rising
Aframax WAF–Eur$3.80/tStable WoW
3-2-1 USGC Crack$47.55/bblWoW +$6.29
Singapore Crack$32.40/bbl$15 below USGC
Midland API/S40.5° / 0.22%Light sweet premium
Mars API/S27.9° / 1.82%Medium sour discount
Midland Diff−$0.20/bblNear flat to WTI
Mars Diff−$3.50/bblWide vs 6M avg
Opp Score — Midland88 / 100Best in screener
USGC Margin Lead+$9.35/bblvs Europe
Asia Arb Netback+$0.50/bblNear closure threshold
WAF → Europe+$1.70/bbl#2 route — open
NOTE — Netback estimates are indicative, derived from observable spread and published freight rate data. Actual tradeable netbacks depend on cargo terms, freight negotiation, quality adjustments, pipeline nominations, and credit terms. Not a trading recommendation.