CrudeQ
EIA Inventory Forecast
What is the next EIA inventory move, what drives it, and how tight or loose is WTI right now? Weekly forecast with confidence intervals, probability distribution, and driver attribution.
NEXT FORECAST
-1.01 MMbbl
DRAW — Bullish
BALANCE SCORE
61 / 100
BALANCED
REGIME
TRANSITIONAL
Current market state
LAST ACTUAL
-0.91 MMbbl
Apr 12, 2026
NEXT EIA
Apr 23, 2026
10:30 AM ET release
LIVE
Next EIA Forecast
-1.01
MMbbl
DRAW — Bullish
90% CI: [-2.10, +0.08]
Balance Score
61
out of 100
BALANCED
Near equilibrium
Regime
TRANSITIONAL
Mixed signals — regime unclear, volatility elevated
TIGHTENINGOVERSUPPLYTRANSITIONALMACRO-LEDRISK PREMIUM
Last EIA Print
-0.91
MMbbl — Apr 12, 2026
DRAW — Bullish
Forecast was −0.60 · Error: +0.31 (beat draw)
Next release: Apr 23, 2026
Forecast Engine
Inventory forecast model with confidence intervals, outcome distribution, and supply-demand driver breakdown.
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Supply / Demand Balance
Current week fundamentals driving the forecast.
Supply Side
US Production
13.6 MMbbl/d
Imports
6.8 MMbbl/d
SPR Release
None
OPEC Compliance
97%
Demand Side
Refinery Utilization
89.6%
Refinery Crude Input
16.1 MMbbl/d
Exports
4.2 MMbbl/d
Product Demand
20.2 MMbbl/d
Signal Summary
Curve Structure
BACKWARDATIONCL1–CL2 $4.19
Crack Spread
ELEVATED$47.55 3-2-1
COT Positioning
ADDING LONGS+98k net long
OVX Volatility
ELEVATED73.0 vs 52 avg
Inventory Level
BELOW AVG463.8 MMbbl
Seasonal Trend
DRAW SEASONApr–Jun typical draw
Composite Read
Refinery recovery + export surge dominating. Mild draw most likely outcome. Volatility elevated — execution risk present.
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Insight Feed
Automated SignalsApr 19, 2026
Runs above seasonal — bullish crude drawsRUNSBULL
·Utilization 89.6% vs 89.6% seasonal — slight beat
·Runs at 16.1 MMbbl/d — each +0.1 removes ~0.7 MMbbl/week
·Seasonal ramp into summer driving demand supportive
Imports partially offsetting tighteningIMPORTSNEUTRAL
·Imports at 6.8 MMbbl/d — flat WoW, above Jan lows
·Gulf Coast WAF arrivals rising — limit near-term draw pace
·Net imports 2.6 MMbbl/d — still below 3.5 historical avg
Cushing draws support prompt WTI strengthCUSHINGBULL
·Cushing at 23.8 MMbbl — Z-score −1.4 (below 1σ)
·Tight delivery point = backwardation amplifier
·Each −0.5 MMbbl Cushing draw compresses CL1-CL2 0.3–0.5
Backwardation easing from March peakCURVENEUTRAL
·CL1–CL2 from $7.94 peak → $4.19 today (−$3.75)
·Compression reflects geopolitical risk unwind
·Still in healthy backwardation — not yet signaling loosening
Export surge absorbing domestic oversupplyEXPORTSBULL
·Exports at 4.2 MMbbl/d — highest since Feb
·USGC→Europe arb open at +$2.40/bbl — incentive intact
·Export-driven draws likely to continue for 2–3 weeks
SPR drawdown adds latent supply riskSPRBEAR
·SPR declining steadily at −0.4 MMbbl/week
·No emergency release — but not being refilled either
·Long-term supply buffer thinner than prior cycles
Balance Key Metrics
Forecast MMbbl−1.01Draw — bullish
Conf. Band−2.10 / +0.0890% interval
Model Hit Rate69%13-week trailing
MAE0.71 MMbblMean absolute error
US Production13.6 MMbbl/dFlat WoW — near record
Imports6.8 MMbbl/dStable — slight pressure
Exports4.2 MMbbl/dRising — arb open
Refinery Runs16.1 MMbbl/dStrong crude demand
Utilization89.6%At seasonal avg
Cushing Stocks23.8 MMbblZ-score −1.4 (tight)
5Y Deviation+34.4 MMbblAbove avg — bearish bias
CL1–CL2 Spread$4.19/bblHealthy backwardation
Brent–WTI Spread$4.70/bblBelow $5.37 avg
Regime Score61 / 100BALANCED — transitional
NOTE — Forecasts are generated from a weighted composite of curve structure, EIA historical seasonality, refinery utilization trends, export data, and CFTC positioning signals. They are not investment advice. Model error (MAE 0.71 MMbbl) means significant surprise risk remains — particularly during geopolitical shocks or OPEC policy changes.