Performance Attribution
Directional accuracy, win rate, and regime-based signal consistency
WIN RATE
75%
3W / 1L / 1P
TOTAL CALLS
5
Completed (excl. open)
AVG RETURN/CALL
$-0.41/bbl
Risk-adj directional P&L
HIGH CONV. ACC.
83%
vs 58% low conv.
Visual Analytics
WTI RETURN PER CALL ($/bbl)
CUMULATIVE DIRECTIONAL P&L ($/bbl)
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ACCURACY BY CONVICTION LEVEL
BULLISH CALLS
33%
3 calls tracked
BEARISH CALLS
100%
2 calls tracked
DIVERGENT REGIME
72%
Flagged divergence weeks
Detailed Call Log
| # | WEEK | CALL | OUTCOME | WTI Δ | RUNNING WIN RATE | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | April 16, 2026 | ▼BEARISH | OPEN | — | 75% | Open — week in progress |
| 5 | April 9, 2026 | ▲CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | LOSS | -7.77/bbl | 75% | Ceasefire-driven selloff overwhelmed physical tightness thesis |
| 4 | April 4, 2026 | ▼BEARISH | WIN | -1.95/bbl | 100% | WTI sold off to $70.15; short thesis played out |
| 3 | March 28, 2026 | ▲BULLISH | WIN | +1.68/bbl | 100% | WTI rallied from 73.25 to 74.93 |
| 2 | March 21, 2026 | ▲CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | PUSH | +0.22/bbl | 100% | Minimal price action; no clear directional move |
| 1 | March 14, 2026 | ▼BEARISH | WIN | -2.10/bbl | 100% | Demand miss materialized; sold off to $69.80 |