Performance Dashboard
Forward-tracked model portfolio performance since April 23, 2026. Trades are logged from published weekly briefs and monitored using rules-based target/stop logic.
Live TrackingModel PortfolioUpdated Weekly
Total Trades
4
4 completed
Win Rate
79.2%
2W · 2L · 0P
Since Inception
+3.02R
Cumulative R
Avg R / Trade
+0.76R
Per completed trade
Open Trades
0
Currently tracked
Best Strategy
Long WTI on dip
100% win rate
Equity Curve
Cumulative R — Model Portfolio
+3.02R
since inception
WIN
LOSS
PUSH
1R = 1 unit of risk per tradeLive Open Trades
LIVE0 positions trackedNo open positions at this time.
Trade History
All trades executed and verified on thinkorswim — platform trade confirmations serve as proof of execution.
| # | TRADE | CONVICTION | SIZE | ENTRY | EXIT | R | OPENED | CLOSED | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Short Brent / Long WTI | HIGH | 1R | $9.00 (0.5R) + $10.75 (0.5R) | $5.50 | +1.7R | Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | Target met at $5.50 spread. Return: +4.1% · Portfolio impact: +1.7% |
| 2 | Iron Condor ("Hormuz Deadlock") | MEDIUM | 0.5R | $2.50 credit | $2.70 | -0.08R | Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 28, 2026 | Closed at $2.70 vs $2.50 entry credit. PnL: –$0.20 (–8% of premium). Portfolio impact: –0.04% |
| 3 | Long WTI (June Contract) | HIGH | 1R | $96.20 | $92.00 | -1R | May 5, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | Stopped out at $92.00. Return: –4.4% · Portfolio impact: –0.9% |
| 4 | Long WTI (July Contract) | HIGH | 1.2R | $95.10 | $105.00 | +2.4R | May 11, 2026 | May 17, 2026 | Target met at $105.00. Return: +10.4% · Portfolio impact: +2.6% |
Performance by Strategy
4 trades
STRATEGY
TRADES
WIN RATE
AVG R
Spread
1
100%
+1.7R
Options
1
0%
-0.08R
Directional
2
50%
+1.4R
Signal Quality by Conviction
4 trades
CONVICTION
TRADES
WIN RATE
HIGH
3
67%
MEDIUM
1
0%
Risk Metrics
MVP
Avg Win
+2.05R
Avg Loss
-0.54R
Largest Win
+2.4R
Largest Loss
-1R
Current Exposure
0R
Profit Factor
—
Coming soon
R
HOW R-MULTIPLES ARE CALCULATEDRisk (1R) is the maximum loss you are willing to take on a trade, determined at entry using the stop-loss level.
Risk (1R) = |Stop Price − Entry Price|
Reward is the realized or target price movement in favor of the trade, measured from entry to exit (or target).
Reward = |Entry Price − Exit Price|
The R-multiple expresses performance as a ratio of reward to risk:
R = Reward / Risk
R-MULTIPLE QUALITY SCALE
< 0.5R✕ PoorNot worth the risk
0.5 – 1.0R△ LowAcceptable only if high probability
1.0 – 1.5R○ DecentStandard trade
1.5 – 2.5R✓ GoodStrong setup
2.5 – 4.0R★ ExcellentHigh-quality asymmetric trade
4R+⭑ EliteRare, exceptional asymmetry
1R = 1% of portfolio. All position sizes and returns are expressed in R-multiples. 1R represents the fixed risk unit per trade (1% of total portfolio equity).
%
POSITION SIZING BY CONVICTIONHigh Conviction1.0R1.00% of portfolio
High–Medium Conviction0.75R0.75% of portfolio
Medium Conviction0.5R0.50% of portfolio
Low–Medium Conviction0.25R0.25% of portfolio
BULLISH CALLS
50%
4 calls tracked
BEARISH CALLS
0%
0 calls tracked
DIVERGENT REGIME
72%
Flagged divergence weeks
Trade Log
| # | WEEK | CALL | OUTCOME | R | WTI Δ | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | April 30, 2026 | ▲CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | WIN | +1.7R | +4.10/bbl | Short Brent / Long WTI — spread compressed $9.03 → $5.50. Target met. +1.7R · Portfolio: +1.7% |
| 3 | April 28, 2026 | ▲CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | LOSS | -0.08R | +0.04/bbl | Iron Condor ("Hormuz Deadlock") — closed at $2.70 vs $2.50 credit. –8% premium. –0.08R · Portfolio: –0.04% |
| 2 | May 7, 2026 | ▲BULLISH | LOSS | -1R | -4.40/bbl | Long WTI (June) @ $96.20 — stopped out at $92.00. Return: –4.4% · Portfolio impact: –0.9% |
| 1 | May 17, 2026 | ▲BULLISH | WIN | +2.4R | +10.40/bbl | Long WTI (July) @ $95.10 — target met at $105.00. Return: +10.4% · Portfolio impact: +2.6% |