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CrudeQ

CrudeQ

Energy Equities

Oil majors, E&P companies, refiners, oilfield services, and midstream — screened through a commodity-first lens. Understand how energy equities move with the underlying market.

XLE ETF
$91.42
+1.24% today
BRENT CRUDE
$89.60
+0.83% today
WTI CRUDE
$86.41
+0.91% today
NAT GAS (HH)
$2.14
−1.38% today
ENERGY vs S&P
+3.2%
YTD outperform
TOP OPPORTUNITY
OXY
Score 85/100
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This Week's Equity Lens

Bullish RefinersVLO / MPC

Apr 28, 2026

Crack spreads elevated — refining margins remain wide.

Distillate demand continues to outpace refinery throughput recovery while crude input costs have softened. The 321 crack spread remains above 5-year seasonal averages, creating a favorable margin environment for complex refiners. Both VLO and MPC trade at single-digit P/E with aggressive capital return programs.

CONDITIONS:Crack spreads elevatedDistillate demand firmCrude prices stable-to-soft

Sector Dashboard

Key energy sector benchmarks and constituent performance.

XLE ETF
$91.42
+1.24%
Energy sector ETF
Brent Crude
$89.60
+0.83%
ICE front-month
WTI Crude
$86.41
+0.91%
NYMEX CL1
Nat Gas (HH)
$2.14
−1.38%
Henry Hub front-month
Energy vs S&P
+3.2%
YTD rel.
XLE outperforming SPX YTD
Constituent Performance
YTD return by ticker · Tile size reflects market cap · Updated weekly
Integrated
XOMYTD
ExxonMobil
+6.2%
Mcap $490B
CVXYTD
Chevron
+4.8%
Mcap $285B
SHELYTD
Shell
+3.4%
Mcap $218B
BPYTD
BP
+2.1%
Mcap $97B
Upstream
COPYTD
ConocoPhillips
+9.6%
Mcap $130B
OXYYTD
Occidental
+12.4%
Mcap $52B
APAYTD
APA Corp
+8.1%
Mcap $10B
Refining
VLOYTD
Valero Energy
+5.3%
Mcap $50B
MPCYTD
Marathon Petroleum
+7.8%
Mcap $58B
Services
SLBYTD
SLB
-3.2%
Mcap $62B
HALYTD
Halliburton
-1.8%
Mcap $32B

* Prices are static illustrative values. Live data feed coming in future release.

Relative Performance

XLE vs S&P 500 vs WTI indexed to 100 — select time range.

Relative Performance
XLE
SPX
WTI
Indexed to 100

Company Screener

Filter by sub-sector, dividend, beta, valuation, or momentum.

11 names
TickerCompanyPriceP/EDividendYTDType
XOMExxonMobil$118.4313.4x3.4%
+6.2%
Integrated
CVXChevron$159.2112.8x4.1%
+4.8%
Integrated
BPBP$34.728.1x5.2%
+2.1%
Integrated
SHELShell$67.559.3x4.0%
+3.4%
Integrated
COPConocoPhillips$101.8711.2x2.1%
+9.6%
Upstream
OXYOccidental$52.1410.5x1.8%
+12.4%
Upstream
APAAPA Corp$24.387.6x3.2%
+8.1%
Upstream
VLOValero Energy$162.509.8x3.1%
+5.3%
Refining
MPCMarathon Petroleum$185.348.4x2.3%
+7.8%
Refining
SLBSLB (Schlumberger)$43.2115.1x2.6%
-3.2%
Services
HALHalliburton$34.5613.7x2.2%
-1.8%
Services

* All figures are illustrative. Live market data integration planned for future release.

Oil Price Sensitivity

Who benefits most from rising oil? Understand beta by sub-sector.

Who Benefits Most From Rising Oil?

Energy equities do not all move the same way with crude. Understanding sensitivity by sub-sector is critical for positioning — especially around EIA releases, OPEC decisions, and macro risk-off events.

Oil Beta vs Valuation Attractiveness
Upper-right = high beta + cheap · Bubble size = dividend yield
Upstream
Integrated
Refining
Services
High Beta · Cheap ValueBest risk/reward in oil rally — OXY, APA territory
Low Beta · Cheap ValueDefensive value play — refiners (VLO, MPC), BP
High Beta · ExpensiveExpensive leverage — risk of mean reversion
Low Beta · Defensive MajorsStability + income focus — XOM, CVX ballast

High Beta to Oil

These names move aggressively with WTI/Brent. Leverage rises when oil rallies — but drawdowns are steep on selloffs.

OXYHigh oil-price leverage, Buffett-backed
COPLow-cost upstream, strong FCF torque
APASmall-cap E&P with high sensitivity

Defensive Majors

Integrated balance sheets, strong dividends, and downstream buffers dampen oil volatility impact.

XOMIntegrated, best-in-class balance sheet
CVXDiversified cash flows, low debt

Crack Spread Winners

Refiners profit from the spread between crude input costs and product output prices — not from crude prices directly.

VLOLargest independent refiner in the US
MPCHigh complexity refineries, MPLX upside

Weekly Equity Ideas

Thematic setups aligned to current commodity conditions.

Bullish Refiners

VLO · MPC

Crack spreads elevated — refining margins remain wide as distillate and gasoline demand outpaces crude supply tightness.

CONDITION: Crack spreads elevated

Defensive Majors

XOM · CVX

High macro or geopolitical uncertainty favors integrated names with diversified cash flows, strong dividends, and balance sheet depth.

CONDITION: Uncertainty / risk-off

Services Recovery

SLB · HAL

Rising upstream capex guidance from majors and E&P companies signals an activity recovery — oilfield services are typically a lagging beneficiary.

CONDITION: Capex cycle rising

Valuation Snapshot

Heatmap: green = cheapest EV/EBITDA, red = richest. Yields: green = highest.

EV/EBITDA:
Cheapest
Cheap
Rich
Richest
TickerTypeEV / EBITDADiv YieldBuyback YieldFCF Yield
XOM
ExxonMobil
Integrated7.2x3.4%3.1%6.2%
CVX
Chevron
Integrated6.8x4.1%2.8%5.9%
BP
BP
Integrated5.1x5.2%4.2%8.1%
SHEL
Shell
Integrated5.6x4.0%3.5%7.4%
COP
ConocoPhillips
Upstream6.3x2.1%3.4%7.8%
OXY
Occidental
Upstream5.8x1.8%2.1%9.2%
APA
APA Corp
Upstream4.2x3.2%1.9%11.4%
VLO
Valero Energy
Refining5.9x3.1%4.8%10.2%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
Refining5.1x2.3%5.6%11.8%
SLB
SLB (Schlumberger)
Services9.4x2.6%1.2%5.1%
HAL
Halliburton
Services8.7x2.2%1.0%4.8%

* Color intensity = relative cheapness/richness within this universe. All figures illustrative.

CrudeQ Opportunity Ranking

Composite score /100 across Valuation, Momentum, Oil Sensitivity, Balance Sheet, Macro Setup.

Each name scored /20 across five factors: Valuation, Momentum, Oil Sensitivity, Balance Sheet, Macro Setup. Total out of 100.

#1Upstream

OXY

Occidental

85

/100

085 / 100100
Oil LeveredMomentum StrongAttractive Value

Highest oil beta in universe, strong Permian FCF, Buffett stake signals long-term conviction.

17Valuation
18Momentum
19Oil
14Balance
17Macro
#2Upstream

COP

ConocoPhillips

80

/100

080 / 100100
Low-Cost E&PStrong FCFClean Balance Sheet

Best-in-class low-cost E&P with strong FCF torque, variable dividend, and clean balance sheet.

16Valuation
16Momentum
17Oil
16Balance
15Macro
#3Refining

VLO

Valero Energy

78

/100

078 / 100100
Crack Spread WinnerDefensiveCapital Return

Crack spreads elevated, refining margins wide, defensive to crude selloffs yet earnings-rich.

18Valuation
15Momentum
10Oil
17Balance
18Macro
#4Upstream

APA

APA Corp

77

/100

077 / 100100
Deep ValueHigh BetaOptionality

Deeply discounted to intrinsic value, high oil leverage, Suriname optionality not priced in.

19Valuation
14Momentum
18Oil
12Balance
14Macro
#5Refining

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

75

/100

075 / 100100
Buyback MachineHigh ComplexityMLP Yield

High-complexity refinery network, aggressive buyback program, MPLX MLP provides yield support.

17Valuation
15Momentum
9Oil
17Balance
17Macro

* Scores are illustrative and reflect a subjective composite framework. Not investment advice.

Catalyst Timeline

Upcoming events, earnings, and macro releases that could move energy equities.

Upcoming Catalysts
Earnings
OPEC
EIA
Fed
Dividend
Apr 30
EIAEIA WPSR Release
May 1
FedFed FOMC Decision
May 2
EarningsXOM Q1 EarningsXOM
May 2
EarningsCVX Q1 EarningsCVX
May 5
OPECOPEC+ Ministerial
May 7
EIAEIA WPSR Release
May 8
EarningsVLO Q1 EarningsVLO
May 9
EarningsMPC Q1 EarningsMPC
May 12
DividendOXY Dividend Ex-DateOXY
May 16
EarningsSLB Q1 EarningsSLB
* Dates are illustrative. Verify against official IR pages and CME / EIA / Fed schedules.

Stock vs Oil Correlation

12-month rolling Pearson r — how tightly each name tracks its primary commodity driver.

How Equities Move Relative to Underlying Commodity Drivers

12-month rolling Pearson correlation between equity price and primary commodity driver. Higher values indicate tighter co-movement. Correlations shift with macro regimes.

Rolling Correlations
12-month rolling Pearson r · Equity price vs primary commodity driver
XOMBrent
12-month rolling Pearson r
0.55
current
May 2025Apr 2026
VLOCrack Spreads
12-month rolling Pearson r
0.78
current
May 2025Apr 2026
OXYWTI
12-month rolling Pearson r
0.84
current
May 2025Apr 2026
SLBRig Count
12-month rolling Pearson r
0.71
current
May 2025Apr 2026

* Correlation values are illustrative estimates. Live charting with historical overlays planned for future release.

Scenario Matrix

Which names perform best under each macro / commodity scenario.

Use as a quick rotation guide alongside the weekly brief.

Oil ↑

Rising Crude

WTI/Brent breakout, supply tightness, geopolitical risk premium building.

Best Names

OXY
COP
APA

Oil Flat

Range-Bound Crude

Sideways WTI, no directional momentum — income and balance sheet quality wins.

Best Names

XOM
CVX

Cracks ↑

Elevated Crack Spreads

Refining margins wide — distillate or gasoline demand surge, crude input costs soft.

Best Names

VLO
MPC

Capex ↑

Rising Upstream Spend

Operators increasing drilling budgets — services volumes, pricing power, backlog rebuilding.

Best Names

SLB
HAL

NOTE — All data displayed is illustrative and for educational purposes only. Prices, fundamentals, and scores reflect static sample values. Live data feeds, interactive correlation overlays, and sector rotation signals are planned for a future release. Not investment advice.